Improved protection of oil infrastructure in the Niger Delta has coincided with lower conflict levels and rising crude output, drawing attention to security’s role in economic recovery, DARE OLAWIN writes
Recent security and oil sector data have highlighted a link between efforts to protect oil infrastructure in the Niger Delta and improvements in crude oil production, even as insecurity continues across several parts of Nigeria.
Findings from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project show that while conflict incidents and fatalities increased significantly across much of the country between 2023 and 2025, the South-South region recorded a decline in violent events and fatalities. ACLED is an independent, impartial conflict monitor providing real-time data and analysis on violent conflict and protest in various countries and territories across the world.
During the same period (between 2023 and 2025), Nigeria’s oil production recovered, with industry stakeholders linking part of the improvement to measures aimed at protecting critical oil assets and reducing crude oil theft.
The Niger Delta remains central to Nigeria’s economic fortunes because of its role in oil and gas production. As a result, efforts to sustain peace and secure oil infrastructure in the region continue to attract attention from policymakers, regulators, industry operators and host communities.
Among the organisations involved in oil asset protection is Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited, which works alongside other security agencies and surveillance contractors in safeguarding oil facilities across the region. Stakeholders have increasingly pointed to the role of such interventions in efforts to curb pipeline vandalism and illegal bunkering, long identified as major threats to Nigeria’s oil production capacity.
South-South violence declines
According to ACLED data, violent incidents in the South-South geopolitical zone declined by 20.9 per cent between 2023 and 2025. Fatalities arising from such incidents also fell by 8.3 per cent during the same period. Although conflict events declined by a larger margin of 26.9 per cent in the South-East, fatalities in the region increased by 8.3 per cent within the review period.
The incidents tracked by ACLED included violence against civilians, battles involving government forces and armed groups, protests, strategic developments, riots, and explosions or other forms of remote violence. The South-West recorded a 14.1 per cent decline in incidents between 2023 and 2025. However, fatalities increased by 12.21 per cent.
The trend differed sharply across Northern Nigeria. Analysis of the database showed that incidents in the North-West rose by 127.9 per cent between 2023 and 2025, while fatalities increased by 99.1 per cent. In the North-East, conflict events rose by 19.5 per cent between 2023 and 2025, while fatalities increased by 26.4 per cent.
The North-Central region also recorded a rise in insecurity, with incidents increasing by 74.1 per cent and fatalities by 38.3 per cent during the period under review. ACLED recorded 4,701 incidents nationwide in 2023. The figure rose to 5,815 in 2024 and further increased to 6,570 in 2025, bringing the total number of incidents over the three-year period to 17,086.
Regional analysis showed that the North-West recorded 1,076 incidents in 2023, 1,727 in 2024 and 2,452 in 2025, for a cumulative total of 5,255 incidents. The North-East recorded 923 incidents in 2023, 985 in 2024 and 1,103 in 2025, amounting to 3,011 incidents. Similarly, the North-Central region recorded 918 incidents in 2023, 1,140 in 2024 and 1,598 in 2025, giving a total of 3,656 incidents.
In the South-South, there were 651 incidents in 2023, 720 in 2024 and 515 in 2025, resulting in a total of 1,886 incidents. The South-West recorded 573 incidents in 2023, 654 in 2024 and 492 in 2025, bringing its total to 1,719 incidents. The South-East recorded 560 incidents in 2023, 589 in 2024 and 410 in 2025, amounting to 1,559 incidents between 2023 and 2025.
National fatalities increased from 8,847 in 2023 to 9,862 in 2024 and rose further to 12,858 in 2025. Altogether, 31,567 deaths were recorded within the three-year period. The North-East recorded 3,469 deaths in 2023, 2,530 in 2024 and 4,486 in 2025, for a total of 10,485 fatalities. The North-West accounted for 2,351 deaths in 2023, 3,952 in 2024 and 4,680 in 2025, resulting in 10,983 fatalities.
The North-Central region recorded 1,921 fatalities in 2023, 2,038 in 2024 and 2,657 in 2025, amounting to 6,616 deaths. The South-East recorded 471 deaths in 2023, 598 in 2024 and 510 in 2025, giving a total of 1,579 fatalities. In the South-South, fatalities rose from 399 in 2023 to 438 in 2024 before declining to 366 in 2025, bringing the total to 1,203.
The South-West recorded 231 deaths in 2023, 306 in 2024 and 259 in 2025, resulting in 796 fatalities. For the first five months of 2026 ending May 23, ACLED recorded 3,477 incidents nationwide. The regional breakdown showed 1,318 incidents in the North-West, 910 in the North-East, 781 in the North-Central, 158 in the South-South, 206 in the South-West and 104 in the South-East.
During the same period, total casualties stood at 7,061, comprising 3,303 in the North-East, 2,153 in the North-West, 1,335 in the North-Central, 124 in the South-South, 90 in the South-West and 56 in the South-East.
The figures indicate that Nigeria’s security situation deteriorated between 2023 and 2025, with both incidents and fatalities increasing. The North-West emerged as the country’s most active conflict zone, while the North-East remained the deadliest region. Experts also pointed to a sustained escalation in the North-Central region, suggesting a broader spread of insecurity.
Against this backdrop, the South-South recorded comparatively lower levels of violence, with both incidents and fatalities declining over the review period.
Oil production surges
Recent data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission showed that Nigeria exceeded its Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries production quota in May, achieving its highest crude oil production level in 15 months and reinforcing its position as Africa’s leading oil producer.
According to the commission, Nigeria produced an average of 1.53 million barrels of crude oil per day during the month. When condensate production of 170,446 barrels per day was included, average hydrocarbon output stood at 1.7 million barrels per day.
“Nigeria’s oil production witnessed an upswing in May 2026, averaging 1,530,354 barrels of crude oil and 170,446 barrels of condensates per day, bringing the total combined production to 1,700,800 barrels per day and consolidating Nigeria’s position as Africa’s largest oil producer,” the NUPRC stated.
The regulator noted that the production level represented 102 per cent of Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day. The performance marked a significant milestone for the oil industry, with total output reaching its highest level since July of the previous year, when combined crude oil and condensate production stood at 1.71 million barrels per day.
Excluding condensates, the May production figure of 1.53 million barrels per day was Nigeria’s strongest performance since January 2025, when output reached 1.538 million barrels per day. It also represented a 15-month high for crude oil production.
The production recovery has renewed discussions around the factors responsible for improved output. Industry participants have consistently identified crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism and illegal refining activities as major constraints to production growth over the years.
Within that context, surveillance and asset protection arrangements introduced across parts of the Niger Delta have received increasing attention. Supporters of the approach argue that stronger monitoring of pipelines and production facilities has contributed to reducing losses and improving confidence within the sector.
Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited has featured prominently in those discussions. Since engaging in pipeline surveillance operations, the company has worked to identify illegal connections, protect critical infrastructure, and collaborate with relevant authorities to address threats to oil installations.
Stakeholders who support the arrangement contend that the reduction in crude theft and pipeline breaches has created conditions that support increased production. They argue that while surveillance operations alone cannot account for all improvements in output, the protection of oil infrastructure remains an important component of broader efforts to stabilise the sector.
Stakeholders’ views
Chairman of the House Committee on Host Communities, Dekor Robinson, said the contributions of Tantita and its leadership to national security deserved recognition. Lawmakers from the Joint Committee of the House of Representatives on Host Communities and Public Petitions, along with other stakeholders, praised Tantita for its effective service in protecting Nigeria’s critical oil infrastructure.
They highlighted improvements in crude oil production, reductions in pipeline vandalism and the restoration of relative peace in oil-producing communities as major developments recorded under the leadership of High Chief Government Ekpemupolo, popularly known as Tompolo.
“Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited, in partnership with NNPCL, has rendered demonstrably effective service in the protection of crude oil pipelines and the recovery of national crude oil production,” they stated.
The committee subsequently passed a unanimous vote of confidence in the company and urged the Federal Government and NNPC to approve a long-term renewal of its surveillance contract to consolidate gains made in combating crude oil theft and illegal bunkering.
“Tompolo and his team have served this country at great personal risk. They have kept the economic lifeline of the nation running and restored peace to communities that had not experienced peace in decades,” they said.
The National Chairman of Host Communities of Nigeria Producing Oil and Gas, His Highness Benjamin Style Tamaranebi JP, also commended President Bola Tinubu for the confidence reposed in Tantita as part of efforts to protect oil assets in the Niger Delta.
“Let us be clear: Destroying our oil assets is economic suicide. It’s a direct attack on the very lifeline of our communities. Our host communities have endured environmental degradation, economic hardship, and neglect for decades. The passage of the Petroleum Industry Act was a turning point, ensuring that our communities finally receive direct benefits from the resources extracted from our land,” he said.
Tamaranebi said Tantita Security Services and other security outfits were important to safeguarding Nigeria’s oil assets. According to him, their activities have helped curb oil theft, improve production levels and support economic stability.
He added: “HOSTCOM believes that the unique understanding of the Niger Delta terrain by Tantita and its personnel is vital for effective onslaught against oil theft, and our security agencies and other critical stakeholders in our region must recognise the selfless contributions of Tantita and its main promoter, our own indefatigable Niger Delta crusader for better life for our people and champion of equitable and fair distribution of the nation’s resources, High Chief, Dr. Government Oweizide Ekpemupolo, alias Tompolo, the Ibe-Ebidouwei of Ijaw Nation and support them”
A Lagos-based social analyst, Jamiu Idris, said understanding the current level of stability in the Niger Delta requires looking at the condition of Nigeria’s oil industry a few years ago.
“Before the implementation of the Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited framework in late 2022, the nation faced an existential threat. Oil production had cratered to a historic low of 1.015 million barrels per day in September 2022—a staggering decline that jeopardised the federal budget, weakened the naira, and pushed the economy toward the brink of insolvency,” he stated.
SOURCE: PUNCH NEWS PAPER
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