No fewer than 485.44 million barrels of the 592 million barrels of oil produced in 2025 were exported, The PUNCHreports.
A latest industry report by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission showed that the country exported 82 per cent of its oil output in 2025, leaving local refineries with 106.56 million barrels, which is 18 per cent of the output.
During the period under review, total oil lifted averaged 1.62 million barrels per day, of which 1.33 mbpd were exported, and 290,000bpd were left for local refineries. The report stated that crude oil production during the review year was 82 per cent, while condensate was 18 per cent.
“In 2025, total crude oil and condensate production averaged 1.62 million barrels per day, translating to approximately 592 million barrels of total production for the year. The production mix consisted of crude oil: 82 per cent, equivalent to 1.33 mbpd; and condensate: 18 per cent, equivalent to 0.29 mbpd.
“The stable 82:18 ratio indicates structural consistency in Nigeria’s hydrocarbon portfolio, with no significant shift toward condensate-dominant output. The proportional balance suggests low compositional variance and sustained upstream operational performance across producing assets,” he said.
It was reported that lifting during the year matched the production levels at a ratio of 1:1, indicating improved hydrocarbon operation and accounting. It added that the symmetry between production mix and lifting allocation reflected a stable and structured crude disposition framework.
“Total lifting also averaged 1.62 mbpd, effectively matching production levels. This implies a production-to-lifting ratio of 1:1, indicating improved hydrocarbon operation and accounting.
“Export volumes accounted for 82 per cent (1.33 mbpd), while 18 per cent (0.29 mbpd) was allocated to domestic refineries. The symmetry between production mix and lifting allocation reflects a stable and structured crude disposition framework,” the report stated.
On the industry implications of the development, the report maintained that the near parity between production and lifting showed strong mass balance integrity and effective regulatory data management with limited unaccounted-for losses. It was added that the high export dependency ratio underscored Nigeria’s continued reliance on the international markets.
“The near parity between production and lifting signals strong mass balance integrity and effective regulatory data management, with limited unaccounted-for losses. The high export dependency ratio (82 per cent) underscores Nigeria’s continued reliance on international crude markets and exposure to global price volatility,” the report stated.
The commission explained that while domestic refinery supply remains smaller, the consistent allocation supports ongoing refining expansion and the import substitution drive.
The regulator maintained that future performance would be influenced by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ production dynamics, global demand trends, and stabilisation in domestic refining infrastructure.
“While domestic refinery supply remains comparatively smaller (18 per cent), its consistent allocation supports ongoing refining capacity expansion and import substitution objectives. Future performance will be influenced by OPEC production dynamics, global demand trends, energy transition policies, and stabilisation in domestic refining infrastructure,” the report explained.
The strong export figures come at a time when the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote refinery was battling an acute shortage of local crude. The refinery has repeatedly complained of receiving far below its required volumes from domestic sources, forcing it to import crude from international markets.
This situation persists despite Nigeria’s position as Africa’s largest crude oil producer. Industry sources note that a significant portion of produced crude continues to be exported while the country’s flagship refinery grapples with supply constraints under the naira-for-crude arrangement.
Before the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited recently increased crude supply to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery from five cargoes to 10 cargoes, The PUNCH reports that the ambitious deal between Dangote and the NNPC faced challenges, as the refinery experienced a crude oil supply shortfall of approximately 79.53 million barrels between October 2025 and mid-March 2026.
Data obtained from an impeccable senior management source within the refinery indicated that the facility, which requires approximately 19.77 million barrels of crude monthly to operate at full capacity, received significantly lower volumes during the period.
The official argued that, under the Petroleum Industries Act, the export of crude before meeting local demand was clearly prohibited, stressing that the $20bn Lekki-based plant had been grappling with inadequate crude volumes, while the country, through NNPC, continued to export some of its oil.
A breakdown of the figures shows that the refinery is supposed to get about 19.77 million barrels of crude monthly, but it got 4.55 million barrels in October, 6.45 million barrels in November, 4.30 million barrels in December, 5.65 million barrels in January, and 4.66 million barrels in February. For March, only 3.6 million barrels were delivered between the 1st and 15th.
In total, crude supplied within the five-and-a-half-month period stood at 29.21 million barrels, compared to an estimated 108.74 million barrels required for the same duration. This translates to a supply performance of about 26.9 per cent, indicating that more than three-quarters of the refinery’s crude needs were not met.
The Dangote refinery said in a recent statement that local crude producers were refusing to supply feedstock to its facility, forcing it to rely more on imported crude. According to the company, the refinery received just five cargoes every month from the national oil company instead of 13 cargoes, adding that the cargoes were paid for at international market prices.
“While we receive about five cargoes a month from NNPC, which we pay for in naira, these cargoes are priced at international market prices plus premium and fall short of the 13 cargoes which we require to support sales into Nigeria.
“The high crude cost is compounded by the fact that Nigeria’s upstream producers have failed to supply crude oil to the refinery as required under the Petroleum Industry Act, forcing us to source a substantial portion through international traders who charge an additional premium,” it stated.
Our correspondent gathered from sources within the NNPC that there was truly a shortfall because some volume of NNPC’s daily crude output had been front-sold in the past.
Recently, Africa’s richest man and President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, revealed in a report by Bloomberg that the refinery received 10 cargoes of crude oil from the state-owned oil firm in March, compared to an average of about five cargoes monthly since late 2024.
Dangote said the shipments included six cargoes paid for in naira and four in dollars, under the crude supply arrangement between the refinery and the NNPC. However, this is still below the over 19 million barrels required by the refinery monthly.
Speaking, the publicity secretary of the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria, Eche Idoko, called for increased crude supply to local refineries.
Idoko declared that refiners would intensify demand for more crude with the reported improvement in national production. The CORAN spokesman explained that consistent crude supply would improve refinery operations and profitability, noting that modular refineries would not make profits unless they get enough feedstock locally.
“If we get crude, of course, we will make gains; we have our cash flow. If we get regular products like we ought to do, yes, we would make gains. But without products, we are not making gains. If the oil producers give us feedstock, we will make gains. That’s how good the refining business is,” he said.
SOURCE: PUNCH NEWS PAPER
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