Nigeria’s $50bn offshore investment target depends not only on policy reforms and approvals, but also on securing pipelines and ensuring stability in the Niger Delta, DARE OLAWIN writes
Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas sector is projected to attract between $30bn and $50bn in offshore investments between 2026 and 2030, according to recent data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission.
The commission said the investment pipeline would be driven by 22 major offshore projects expected to boost crude oil production, create jobs, expand energy infrastructure and strengthen the country’s energy security.
The NUPRC said achieving the investment target would require peace and stability in the Niger Delta and the protection of national assets, particularly oil pipelines. Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited, in collaboration with other security agencies, plays a key role in securing oil infrastructure in the region.
The regulator attributed the improved investment outlook to reforms introduced under the Petroleum Industry Act, improved licensing transparency and faster project approvals. Since 2024, the regulator has approved more than $57bn in Field Development Plans, with several projects already progressing to Final Investment Decisions.
The commission also said preparations for the 2026 Licensing Round were underway as it sought to attract further investment into Nigeria’s upstream sector. The planned projects are expected to
support the government’s target of increasing crude oil production to two million barrels per day by 2027 and three million barrels per day by 2030.
President Bola Tinubu had appointed Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited, led by Government Ekpemupolo, alias Tompolo, to protect Nigeria’s oil assets in the Niger Delta region. The appointment was to enable TSSNL, through its security operations, to support the national economy in getting the full benefits of oil resources.
Securing pipelines
TSSNL works in collaboration with other security outfits to secure oil assets and ensure peace and stability in the Niger Delta region. Tantita’s operations have ensured the security of oil pipelines, uninterrupted flow of petroleum resources and a shift from constant loss management to stability, planning, growth and development.
The TSSNL operations have also helped reduce oil theft and support increased oil production. Its track record in mitigating risks associated with oil pipelines has positioned it as a partner in preserving Nigeria’s oil infrastructure.
The impact of TSSNL’s operations was captured in a recent survey, with a majority of respondents attributing the de-escalation of security incidents in the Niger Delta region to pipeline surveillance operations executed by the company.
As captured in the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project, violent events declined by 20.9 per cent in the South-South geopolitical region between 2023 and 2025. Fatalities arising from such violent events in the oil-rich region declined by 8.3 per cent within the same period.
Although similar conflicts declined by a higher margin of 26.9 per cent in the South-East region, fatalities resulting from such events increased by 8.3 per cent. The violent events tracked by ACLED during the period included violence against civilians, battles between authorities and armed groups, protests, strategic developments, riots, and explosions/remote violence.
The South-West recorded a decline of 14.1 per cent in the total number of incidents between 2023 and 2025. However, the fatality rate increased by 12.21 per cent.
Further analysis of the database showed that North-West incidents increased by 127.9 per cent between 2023 and 2025, with the region recording a 99.1 per cent increase in the fatality rate.
Enhancing surveillance
Tantita recently contracted Textron Systems to deliver three uncrewed aircraft to enhance its surveillance operations on Nigeria’s oil infrastructure. Under the contract agreement signed late last year, Textron Systems, USA, is to deliver three Aerosonde Mk. 4.7 vertical takeoff and landing uncrewed aircraft systems to the surveillance company.
The systems will be delivered in a fully ITAR-Free configuration designed for ease of export to international customers. The aircraft are expected to enhance security operations for the protection of Nigeria’s oil and gas infrastructure.
The sale also includes options for training and additional aircraft to support planned capability expansion, building on a previous Foreign Military Sale contract to the country.
The Aerosonde Mk. 4.7 VTOL UAS offers a runway-independent configuration powered by Hybrid Quadrotor technology, enabling vertical takeoff and landing.
“The Aerosonde Mk. 4.7 VTOL UAS is a mature, highly reliable, and industry-proven autonomous solution that will provide Tantita Security Services with transformational capability to execute their security operations,” said David Phillips, Senior Vice President, Air, Land and Sea Systems. Related News
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In a published report, President General, Niger Delta Progressive Alliance, Nse Udoh, said pipeline protection enabled national institutions to progress from reactive crisis management to strategic foresight, from temporary containment to durable systems-building, and from uncertainty-driven decisions to calculated national ambition.
“It is important to clarify the role of pipeline surveillance within the wider energy landscape. Energy security encompasses the full value chain, from exploration and production to refining, distribution, pricing policy, and subsidy frameworks. Pipeline surveillance does not manage these domains,” he said.
He added: “Its mandate is precise: safeguarding critical infrastructure that transports petroleum resources. Yet this single function has proven foundational. Without secure transportation channels, production targets falter, refining plans collapse, exports decline, and fiscal projections become unreliable.”
Continuing, he wrote: “Asset protection, in this context, is not a supporting activity. It is a precondition for economic order. In effect, the pipeline is the hinge on which the entire petroleum value chain turns. When that hinge is weak, every other link in the chain carries strain. When it is secure, the entire system gains coherence.”
The immediate impact has been operational, with sustained monitoring and rapid response systems reducing pipeline breaches and illegal tapping.
“Economic stability follows predictability. When crude flows are secure, refineries can plan feedstock intake with assurance. Export commitments can be met without fear of sudden shortfalls. Gas-to-power projects can operate without recurrent shutdown risks.
“Investors can assess Nigeria’s petroleum sector with clearer risk profiles. Surveillance therefore does more than stop theft. It reintroduces reliability into national energy planning. And reliability is the bedrock upon which sustainable economic growth is built.
“With predictable flows, national budgeting becomes more credible, infrastructure planning becomes more precise, and long-term contracts become easier to negotiate. Predictability is the silent currency of modern economies, and pipeline surveillance has begun restoring it,” he stated.
Further benefits extend into public finance. Higher accounted-for production translates into increased export revenues, improved foreign exchange inflows and strengthened fiscal capacity.
Traditional rulers and community leaders in the Niger Delta have called for continued support for Tantita Security Services Limited following a vote of confidence passed on the firm by the National Assembly of Nigeria.
The leaders said the company’s involvement in securing oil and gas pipelines had led to visible improvements in oil-producing communities, particularly in reducing crime and creating jobs for youths.
Speaking on the development, the President-General of the Isoko Development Union, Christopher Akpotu, praised the joint committee of the Senate and House of Representatives for dismissing petitions filed against the firm.
He described the decision as a positive step for the Niger Delta and urged stakeholders to focus on economic gains rather than internal disagreements.
“That is the right way to go,” he said. “There are many opportunities in the oil and gas sector. We should focus on how to derive more benefits rather than fighting over what has already been allocated.”
Akpotu warned that continued disputes among communities could allow outsiders to take over opportunities meant for host communities. “At the end of the day, if we continue fighting, we give room to those who have no stake in our communities to take what rightfully belongs to us,” he added.
Similarly, the President-General of the Ughelli Descendants Union, Sam Akpemegi, said the company had improved security since it began operations, noting that both visible and intelligence-based strategies had been deployed.
“They have done very well and improved security since they began operations,” he said, adding that the firm’s activities now cover a large number of communities.
Akpemegi said the company’s presence had brought benefits to both traditional institutions and residents, and called for continued backing.
In the same vein, the Odiologbo of Ofagbe Kingdom, Ogaga Ikpoku, supported the decision of the National Assembly, describing it as timely and beneficial to peace and stability in the region.
Overall, asset protection has also produced environmental and social benefits, particularly in the Niger Delta. Illegal refining and pipeline sabotage once left waterways polluted, farmlands infertile, and communities trapped in cycles of hazard and insecurity. With sustained surveillance operations dismantling illegal sites and preventing repeated breaches, ecological recovery has begun.
SOURCE: PUNCH NEWS PAPER
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