• Nigeria earns $14.5m daily as oil trades above $84
• Pump prices rise to N960 in Abuja, N940 in Lagos after Dangote hike
• PETROAN warns crisis may worsen FX pressure, inflation
• Asian refiners cut output; Iraq shuts in 460,000 barrels per day
• Drone attack hits UAE export hub, heightens supply fears
• FG suspends pilgrimages to Israel over security concerns
• Nigerian embassy urges vigilance in Kuwait, Bahrain
• IATA raises airspace, fuel cost concerns amid hostilities
• U.S. warns of imminent attack in Saudi oil hub; urges citizens to leave region
Escalating hostilities involving the United States, Israel and Iran have unsettled global energy and financial markets, lifting crude prices above $84 per barrel and delivering Nigeria an estimated $14.5 million in additional daily oil earnings even as domestic petrol prices climbed towards N1,000 per litre.
Brent crude briefly traded above $85 amid concerns over possible disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a channel that accounts for about 20 per cent of global crude flows, while gas prices in Europe spiked and major equity markets retreated on fears of renewed inflationary pressure.
The turbulence has sharpened concerns over supply chain stability and the broader economic consequences of a prolonged conflict in a region central to global energy security.
For Nigeria, whose crude blends hovered near $80 per barrel, the price rally places oil receipts well above the proposed 2026 benchmark of $64.85, offering short-term fiscal relief as authorities seek to strengthen foreign exchange buffers.
However, the gains are being tempered by rising domestic fuel costs following an upward adjustment of ex-depot prices by Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has triggered fresh increases at filling stations in Abuja and Lagos.
The fallout has also extended beyond the oil market, with the International Air Transport Association warning that escalating tensions could disrupt air traffic and fuel costs, while the United States has urged its citizens to leave several Middle East countries.
Meanwhile, at the homefront, the Federal Government has suspended pilgrimages to Israel and advised nationals in parts of the Gulf to remain vigilant.
RETAIL petrol prices rose further yesterday in parts of Lagos and Abuja following an upward review of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) ex-depot price by Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
Checks by The Guardian showed that Eterna filling station in Gbagada sold PMS at N935 per litre, while Northwest station in Anthony adjusted its pump price to N940 per litre. The TotalEnergies outlet within the same axis also dispensed petrol at N935 per litre, signalling a fresh round of retail market adjustments.
In Abuja, outlets operated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited increased pump prices from N875 to about N960 per litre.
The price movement followed Dangote Refinery’s decision to raise its gantry rate by N100 to N874 per litre from N774 per litre. The adjustment took effect at midnight on March 2, 2026, and has since reshaped downstream pricing dynamics, prompting cautious trading among depot operators and marketers.
Industry sources attributed the increase largely to renewed volatility in global crude oil markets, where prices have surged above $80 per barrel amid fears of supply disruptions linked to tensions in the Middle East. Analysts warned that sustained disruption of shipping activities in the region could push crude prices beyond $100 per barrel, further tightening Nigeria’s petroleum pricing structure.
The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) cautioned that the continuing conflict poses a significant threat to global energy stability and Nigeria’s domestic fuel market.
“If the crisis continues, the impact will extend beyond pump prices to affect foreign exchange stability, domestic fuel pricing structures, and overall inflation levels within the country,” the group said.
PETROAN added that any sustained increase in crude oil prices would inevitably be reflected at retail outlets across the country under the deregulated regime.
The association renewed calls for accelerated efforts to strengthen domestic refining capacity, urging authorities to prioritise steady crude supply to local refineries, sustain the naira-for-crude policy to ease foreign exchange pressure, and fast-track rehabilitation of the four government-owned refineries.
According to the group, restoring the refineries to full operational capacity would reduce dependence on imports, enhance energy security and shield consumers from excessive price shocks. It also advocated closer monitoring of global energy market developments, proactive policy responses and sustained investment in petroleum infrastructure, while emphasising the need for diplomatic engagement to protect global supply chains.
FG suspends pilgrimages to Israel over security concerns
The Federal Government has suspended all Christian pilgrimages to Israel following the worsening security situation in the Middle East.
The decision was announced in Lagos by the Executive Secretary of the Nigerian Christian Pilgrim Commission (NCPC), Stephen Adegbite, shortly after about 500 pilgrims returned from the 2025 Main Pilgrimage exercise at the Murtala Muhammed International Airport.
The 2025 pilgrimage, which commenced on December 29, 2025, with the inaugural flight from the Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja, saw more than 4,000 Nigerian Christians airlifted to the Holy Land without incident. The Commission deployed a Boeing 777-300 aircraft with a 525-seat capacity for the exercise.
Adegbite said recent developments in Israel and the wider Middle East necessitated the suspension.
“In view of the state of emergency declared by Israeli authorities and restrictions on public gatherings, the Commission has decided to put on hold all pilgrimages, both by the Commission and private operators, until the security situation normalises,” he said.
He stated that the safety and welfare of pilgrims remain paramount and that the Commission is closely monitoring events in the region. The suspension, he added, will remain until international travel to Israel is considered safe.
Nigerian embassy in Kuwait urges vigilance amid Middle East tensions
The Nigerian embassy in Kuwait has advised citizens in Kuwait and Bahrain to remain vigilant and observe safety precautions amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
In a statement dated March 1 and shared yesterday, the Mission said it is closely monitoring developments in the region and urged Nigerians residing in or visiting both countries to do the same.
The embassy called on the Nigerian community to monitor local news and follow official announcements issued by the Kuwaiti and Bahraini governments.
“In view of the prevailing circumstances in the region, the Embassy of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in the State of Kuwait with concurrent accreditation to the Kingdom of Bahrain, wishes to advise all Nigerian nationals in both countries to remain vigilant, observe safety guidelines, advisories from the host governments, and remain calm at all times,” the statement read.
Supply disruptions mount as Asian refiners cut output, Iraq curtails production
Asian refiners, particularly state-owned firms reliant on Middle Eastern crude, are considering reducing processing rates by up to 30 per cent as millions of barrels remain stranded near the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating regional tensions.
The reported move reflects growing concern over supply bottlenecks and shipping disruptions along the strategic waterway, a key corridor for global oil trade.
In Iraq, production has been curtailed at major southern oilfields, including Rumaila, while West Qurna 2 is shutting in about 460,000 barrels per day, according to Iraqi officials. Authorities attributed the cutbacks to storage constraints at export terminals following disrupted navigation and tanker shortages.
In the United Arab Emirates, a drone attack targeted the port of Fujairah, one of the country’s main oil export hubs outside the Strait of Hormuz. Although there were no confirmed reports of significant structural damage, the incident heightened concerns over the vulnerability of critical energy infrastructure in the region.
Market analysts warned that prolonged supply constraints could sustain upward pressure on crude prices, with potential knock-on effects for global inflation and energy-importing economies.
For Nigeria, the rally in crude prices presents short-term fiscal relief as the government seeks to strengthen foreign exchange reserves and stabilise public finances. However, the revenue gains are being tempered by rising domestic fuel costs, reflecting the pass-through effect of higher international oil prices.
IATA urges protection of civil aviation as Middle East war raises airspace concerns
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has called on parties involved in the escalating conflict between Israel, the United States and Iran to safeguard civil aviation operations and protect civilians from harm.
In its monthly report on passenger and cargo traffic, IATA warned that the recent hostilities have introduced fresh uncertainty into global air transport, particularly in relation to traffic flows and fuel costs.
The Director-General of IATA, Willie Walsh, appealed for restraint and adherence to international obligations, stressing that aviation must not become a casualty of war.
“Events over the weekend have, however, introduced some uncertainty into the evolution of traffic and fuel costs. We all hope for an early peaceful resolution to the current hostilities. In the meantime, it is critical that states respect their obligation to keep civilians and civil aviation free from harm,” he said.
Walsh noted that although global passenger demand remained resilient in January 2026, geopolitical instability poses risks to airspace access, operational planning and fuel price stability. He insisted that the safety and security of passengers, crew and aviation infrastructure must remain paramount.
U.S. warns of imminent attack in Saudi oil hub as Middle East conflict deepens
THE United States has warned of an “imminent” attack in the Saudi oil hub of Dhahran, heightening fears of a broader regional war.
The warning came as United States President Donald Trump declared that it was too late for talks with Iran, asserting that Tehran’s air defence, air force, navy and leadership were effectively neutralised. His remarks followed fresh Israeli strikes on what officials described as Iran’s leadership compound in Tehran, including the presidential office.
The humanitarian toll continued to rise. Iran’s Red Crescent said the death toll since the United States-Israeli strikes began on Saturday had reached 787. Six American soldiers were also confirmed killed in an Iranian missile strike on a military facility in Kuwait. Iran, in turn, has launched missiles and drones targeting United States-allied nations across the region.
Amid the deteriorating security situation, the United States State Department urged Americans to leave most Middle East countries immediately, citing “serious safety risks.” Citizens were advised to depart via commercial means from Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, the occupied West Bank and Gaza, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen.
Washington has not organised formal evacuations, and many flights across the region have been cancelled or suspended since hostilities began. The American Embassy in Jerusalem said it was “not in a position at this time” to evacuate or directly assist Americans leaving Israel, though Israeli authorities have begun operating shuttles to the Taba border crossing with Egypt.
Between 500,000 and one million Americans are believed to reside in the Middle East, although precise figures remain unclear as registration is not mandatory.
European governments are facing similar concerns. France said it was prepared to repatriate vulnerable citizens using commercial and military aircraft. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot stated that contingency plans were in place, noting that about 400,000 French nationals are thought to be in the region.
In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer urged Britons in the Middle East to register their presence to enable authorities to provide “the best possible support.” Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said an estimated 300,000 British citizens are in the region, with more than 102,000 already registered.
Europe divided over response to widening Middle East war
Europe, however, appeared divided over its response. France, Germany and the UK issued a joint statement warning Iran that they were ready to take “defensive action” to curb its missile and drone capabilities unless it halted what they describedas “indiscriminate attacks.”
The UK agreed to a United States request to use two British military bases for defensive strikes on Iranian missile sites, while France reinforced its regional presence following an Iranian strike on a French base in the United Arab Emirates. Germany said its forces remained ready to take defensive measures if attacked.
Spain signalled a different approach. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said that while he opposed the Iranian regime, he was also against “an unjustified, dangerous military intervention outside of international law.” Several United States aircraft subsequently departed Spain after Madrid ruled that its bases could not be used for offensive operations against Iran.
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