Nigeria’s modular refineries supplied an average of 2.37 per cent of the country’s diesel demand over the three months spanning November 2025 to January 2026, according to data compiled from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority’s monthly fact sheets.
According to the data, only three modular facilities—Waltersmith, Edo Refinery, and Aradel—were operational during this timeframe, while OPAC and Duport remained shut down throughout.
Their combined average daily AGO supply stood at approximately 393,000 litres per day across the period, drawn from varying monthly outputs: 489,000 litres per day in November 2025, 392,000 litres per day in December 2025, and 297,000 litres per day in January 2026.
This low contribution contrasted with national diesel consumption trends, which averaged around 17.0 million litres per day based on actual truck-out volumes into the domestic market. Monthly breakdowns showed consumption at 15.4 million litres per day in November, 16.4 million litres per day in December, and 19.2 million litres per day in January.
Against these figures, modular refineries met roughly 3.18 per cent of demand in November, 2.39 per cent in December, and 1.55 per cent in January, yielding the three-month average of 2.37 per cent.
Capacity utilisation across the active plants remained inconsistent, ranging from low to moderate. Waltersmith hovered around 61–63 per cent, Edo achieved highs of up to 91.40 per cent in November before dropping, and Aradel peaked at over 62 per cent in earlier months but fell to 29.09 per cent in January. Aradel frequently led in output volumes, particularly in November and December.
While modular refineries struggle to play a supportive role in Nigeria’s push for greater domestic refining and energy self-sufficiency, their overall impact on diesel supply remains below expectations. It is noteworthy that none of the modular plants has the capacity to produce petrol presently.
Larger facilities, such as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery—which supplied significantly higher volumes of diesel and other products—along with persistent reliance on imports, dominate the market in meeting national needs.
The Dangote refinery supplied 5.6 million litres of diesel per day in November. It supplied 5.8 million litres per day in December and 10.9 million litres per day in January 2026.
Average daily diesel import figures for November, December, and January were 14.1 mlpd, 10.8 mlpd, and 8.1 mlpd, respectively, indicating that the country still depends heavily on diesel imports, which is the product modular refineries are known for.
The data underscore the incremental but limited progress in scaling modular operations amid ongoing challenges in feedstock access and operational consistency.
The NMDPRA’s report for January provides a detailed overview of modular refinery performance and fuel availability, and consumption benchmarks. It reveals that only three out of the five listed modular refineries were operational during the period, with two shut down entirely.
This underscores ongoing challenges in the sector, where total AGO supply from these refineries represented just a fraction of the daily truck-out volumes for diesel.
Breaking down the performance of individual refineries, Waltersmith Refinery led with an average capacity utilisation of 61.66 per cent, supplying 124,000 litres of AGO per day. Edo Refinery followed, achieving the highest utilisation rate among operational facilities at 63.23 per cent, but with a lower output of 0.055 million litres per day.
Aradel Refinery recorded the lowest utilisation at 29.09 per cent, yet managed to supply 0.118 million litres of AGO daily. In contrast, OPAC and Duport modular refineries were reported as shut down, contributing no output to the total. The two refineries have been shut since last year due to either crude constraints or other challenges.
The fact sheet also established daily consumption benchmarks for 2026 across key petroleum products, providing a yardstick against which actual figures can be measured. For Premium Motor Spirit (petrol), the benchmark is set at 50 million litres per day; diesel, 14 million litres per day; aviation fuel, 3 million litres per day; and cooking gas (liquefied petroleum gas), 3.9 million tonnes per day.
However, actual consumption figures for January 2026 exceeded these benchmarks in every category, indicating heightened demand. Petrol truck-out averaged 60.2 million litres per day, surpassing the benchmark by 20.4 per cent. Diesel consumption reached 19.2 million litres per day, a 37.1 per cent increase over the 14 million litre benchmark.
Aviation fuel saw an average of 3.5 million litres per day, exceeding the benchmark by 16.7 per cent. Cooking gas consumption was reported at 4.86 million metric tonnes per day, representing a 24.6 per cent rise above the 3.9 million-tonne benchmark.
The NMDPRA emphasised that these consumption figures are derived from volumes trucked out into the domestic market. From a broader perspective, the report paints a picture of a downstream sector grappling with demand pressures while modular refineries struggle to scale up.
The average capacity utilisation across the three operational facilities—Waltersmith, Edo, and Aradel—hovers around 51.33 per cent, suggesting potential for increased output if full capacity were achieved. Yet, with OPAC and Duport inactive, the sector’s overall contribution remains constrained.
As Nigeria continues to push for enhanced local refining to reduce import dependency, the January 2026 data serve as a reminder of the hurdles ahead for modular refineries. The paltry 1.5 per cent supply share for diesel from modular refineries calls for the need to address shutdown causes, improve utilisation rates, and boost overall output to better align with national benchmarks and actual consumption trends.
The Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria has repeatedly appealed to the government to support local refiners with adequate crude supply and funding. According to CORAN’s Publicity Secretary, Eche Idoko, Nigeria has multiple operational refineries.
He listed some of the refineries, including the 11,000 barrels-per-day Aradel Refinery in Rivers; the 5,000 bpd Waltersmith Refinery in Imo; the 10,000 bpd OPAC Refinery in Delta; the 20,000 bpd Clairgold Refinery under development in Delta; and the 12,000 bpd Azikel Refinery nearing completion in Bayelsa.
While saying Dangote can secure oil through private deals, he argued that smaller players struggle to get feedstock, calling on the government to enforce the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation for fair access.
The CORAN spokesperson also stated that there is no dedicated fund for critical refinery equipment, such as catalytic reformers essential for producing petrol and desulfurisation units needed for clean fuels, urging that a Midstream Refinery Development Fund be created by the government.
He urged the government to launch the MRDEF to fund PMS-producing units (reformers/desulfurisers); expand the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board’s style of financing for modular refineries; and pass pro-competition laws for fair pricing and infrastructure sharing.
“Dangote is one player among many – including Aradel, Waltersmith, Clairgold and other CORAN members. Monopoly threats arise only if the government withholds crude oil from smaller refiners and denies them funding for critical equipment.
“History shows that intervention works in the gas and agriculture sectors. The government should replicate this for refining, and Nigeria should gain true energy freedom,” he stated.
SOURCE: PUNCH NEWS PAPER
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