Goldman Sachs has projected that global oil demand will grow through at least 2040, driven by rising energy needs and ongoing challenges in scaling low-carbon technology and infrastructure, a year after the bank predicted a peak by 2034.
Goldman’s above-consensus outlook came just days after the International Energy Agency (IEA) said oil demand would continue to grow over the next several decades, and a year after predicting demand would peak by the end of the decade.
The bank forecast global oil demand will grow to 113 million bbl/day in 2040 from 103.5 million bbl/day in 2024, with annual average oil demand growth to remain solid at 900,000 bbl/day in 2025-30, before slowing gradually to 100,000 bbl/day by 2040, with a likely long plateau in the early 2040s.
Key factors Goldman cited for its view include limited alternatives for jet fuel and petrochemicals due to technology bottlenecks, an indirect boost from AI-driven gross domestic product growth, and an overall increase in global energy demand that is expected to outpace the rate at which oil is replaced by low-carbon alternatives.
SOURCE: THIS DAY NEWS PAPER
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