Nigeria’s rising crude oil earnings from higher global prices are strengthening fiscal prospects, but analysts and stakeholders say sustained pipeline security remains crucial to protecting production and revenues, DARE OLAWIN writes
With Brent crude trading above $80 per barrel, higher than Nigeria’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85, the rebound in global oil prices is expected to strengthen the country’s fiscal position.
As a major crude oil exporter, Nigeria stands to benefit from higher export earnings, improved foreign exchange inflows, and stronger macroeconomic indicators. However, maximising these gains, according to analysts, will depend largely on sustained efforts to curb oil theft and maintain stability in the Niger Delta through the continued protection of oil assets by Tantita Security Services Nigeria Ltd.
Oil prices edged higher following increased military tensions between the United States and Iran in the Gulf region, raising concerns about potential disruptions to global crude supplies.
The increase followed the collapse of a truce between the two countries earlier in the week, heightening fears over possible restrictions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway that accounts for roughly 20 per cent of global energy transportation.
For Nigeria, the current upswing in crude prices signals improved government revenue, stronger export receipts and increased foreign exchange inflows into the economy.
With Brent crude trading well above the Federal Government’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, the rally in international oil prices is expected to strengthen fiscal revenues, improve external reserves and support exchange rate stability.
Analysts have projected that if the geopolitical crisis develops into a wider conflict capable of disrupting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude could climb above $100 per barrel.
“Higher oil prices typically strengthen Nigeria’s current account balance and improve foreign exchange liquidity,” the Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, stated in a recent policy brief titled Implications of the Iran–US–Israel Conflict on the Nigerian Economy.
“This could reduce short-term pressure on the naira and reinforce investor confidence,” Yusuf, a renowned economist, further explained.
For Nigeria, sustained higher crude prices would translate into increased export earnings and stronger external balances.
Maintaining those gains, however, requires sustained efforts against crude oil theft, including the continuation of oil assets protection by Tantita Security Services Nigeria Ltd.
The campaign against crude oil theft demands more than conventional security operations. It also requires assigning critical surveillance responsibilities to institutions with proven expertise and a demonstrated commitment to tackling the menace.
That was the objective of the Federal Government when it engaged TSSNL to safeguard oil assets and promote peace and stability across the Niger Delta.
President Bola Tinubu appointed TSSNL, led by High Chief Government Ekpemupolo, popularly known as Tompolo, to protect Nigeria’s oil assets in the Niger Delta.
The appointment was aimed at enabling the company to strengthen security operations that would support the national economy by safeguarding the country’s oil resources.
TSSNL works alongside other security agencies to achieve its mandate of protecting oil infrastructure while promoting peace and stability throughout the Niger Delta.
The company’s operations have helped secure critical oil pipelines, ensured uninterrupted petroleum production, and enabled Nigeria to move from persistent production losses towards greater stability, planning, growth and development.
Its interventions have reshaped the country’s oil and gas security landscape, contributing to higher crude oil production and a significant reduction in oil theft. The company’s record in reducing risks associated with pipeline vandalism has reinforced its position as a dependable partner in protecting one of Nigeria’s most strategic economic assets.
As stakeholders continue to advocate sustained collaboration with TSSNL, safeguarding oil infrastructure remains central to efforts aimed at achieving long-term national economic growth.
Every society relies on strategic assets that drive development and generate economic value. Such assets may be categorised as operating, non-operating or leased assets, among others, depending on their roles in supporting economic activities.
High oil prices
The International Monetary Fund has projected improvements in Nigeria’s Balance of Payments as global crude oil prices continue to rise.
Speaking during a recent interview, the Director of the IMF Communications Department, Ms Julie Kozack, said oil-exporting countries could record stronger balance of payments positions because of higher international oil prices.
She said: “For countries that are energy importers, they may face pressures on their balance of payments. For countries that are oil exporters, their balance of payments may improve because of higher prices. So, we may see a differential effect there. Changes to global financial conditions are likely to affect all countries.”
Nigeria earns more than 90 per cent of its foreign exchange from crude oil exports. With Brent crude trading above $80 per barrel, the country’s export earnings are expected to improve.
Murban crude also climbed above $85 per barrel, reflecting the impact of reduced tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz amid the Middle East crisis.
Kozack noted that the rise in oil prices had affected global equity markets and widened bond spreads. “We have engaged with finance ministers and Central Bank governors in many countries and regions. We’ve also engaged with regional institutions to discuss and share perspectives on the implications of the conflict and again, how the Fund can best provide support,” she said.
She added that countries remained interested in the IMF’s assessment of developments in the global economy, regional markets and their domestic economies.
“Our Managing Director has said recently that in an uncertain world, we do see more countries often turning to the Fund for support. We stand ready to provide that support as needed. Right now, we have not received any formal requests for emergency financing. But of course, as I said, as the situation evolves, as countries reassess their financing needs and their policy options, we stand ready to support them using all of the tools that are available to us,” she said.
Tech-driven surveillance
To strengthen surveillance operations, Tantita recently engaged high-tech security company Textron Systems to supply three uncrewed aircraft that will enhance monitoring of Nigeria’s oil infrastructure.
The agreement, signed late last year, requires Textron Systems of the United States to deliver three Aerosonde Mk. 4.7 vertical take-off and landing uncrewed aircraft systems to the surveillance company.
The aircraft will be supplied in a fully ITAR-Free configuration designed to facilitate export to international customers. They are expected to significantly improve security operations protecting Nigeria’s critical oil and gas infrastructure.
The agreement also provides options for additional aircraft and personnel training to support future expansion, building on an earlier Foreign Military Sale contract with Nigeria.
The Aerosonde Mk. 4.7 VTOL UAS features a runway-independent configuration powered by Hybrid Quadrotor technology, enabling vertical take-off and landing. Its established operational performance and proven reliability make it suitable for security operations across high-risk environments.
“The Aerosonde Mk. 4.7 VTOL UAS is a mature, highly reliable, and industry-proven autonomous solution that will provide Tantita Security Services with transformational capability to execute their security operations,” said David Phillips, Senior Vice President, Air, Land and Sea Systems.
“The Aerosonde system’s demonstrated performance and benchmark-setting reliability will enable the Tantita team to expand its capabilities to protect the oil and gas infrastructure essential to Nigerian security and prosperity.”
The system has been deployed across several countries and currently operates on more than 10 United States Navy vessels. It supports multiple payload configurations with both VTOL and fixed-wing capabilities.
Oil, gas revenue
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited reported a significant increase in revenue, reaching N5.08tn in October 2025 from N4.27tn in September, according to its Monthly Report Summary.
The report also showed that profit after tax rose sharply to N447bn in October from N216bn in September, reflecting stronger operational efficiency, improved market conditions and enhanced cost optimisation strategies.
Gas production increased to 6,997 million standard cubic feet per day in October from 6,284 mmscf/d in September. Gas sales, reported on an M-2 basis, rose to 4,713 mmscf/d, compared with 3,443 mmscf/d in the preceding month.
Stakeholders speak
Forensic experts and other stakeholders have commended the Federal Government and Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited for their joint efforts in strengthening pipeline security, which they said has contributed to higher crude oil production and increased national revenue.
The commendation followed a two-day National Dialogue on Pipeline Security held in Abuja recently, where participants linked recent gains in oil production to coordinated surveillance operations.
The dialogue was organised by the Forum of Forensic Civil Society Groups in Nigeria in collaboration with the Centre for Social Justice, Equity and Transparency.
Participants observed that Nigeria’s oil pipelines remain the backbone of the national economy, noting that improved security directly enhances government revenue and strengthens the country’s ability to meet public obligations.
They said recent increases in crude production and the decline in pipeline vandalism reflected more structured surveillance arrangements, warning against changes that could undermine those gains.
“The dialogue observed that recent improvements in crude oil production levels and the relative decline in pipeline vandalism are closely tied to more coordinated and structured surveillance frameworks. These gains, participants agreed, must be preserved and strengthened rather than subjected to disruptive experimentation,” the communique by Dr Opialu Fabian said.
“The Forum expressed concern over increasing calls to fragment pipeline surveillance arrangements under the guise of inclusion, warning that such approaches risk undermining operational coherence, weakening accountability mechanisms, and creating vulnerabilities that could be exploited by criminal networks.
“Participants emphasised that pipeline protection is not a routine contractual engagement but a sensitive national security function requiring discipline, trust, intelligence coordination, and a clear chain of command. As such, it cannot be treated as an avenue for political accommodation or patronage distribution.”
Stakeholders at the dialogue also warned that introducing unvetted actors into surveillance activities could compromise intelligence gathering and embolden oil theft syndicates responsible for billions of naira in lost revenue.
While acknowledging the importance of involving host communities, they maintained that participation should be achieved through structured engagement, capacity building and clearly defined responsibilities without undermining operational efficiency.
The forum further noted that pipeline security breaches affect the entire country by reducing public revenue, weakening economic stability and slowing national development, stressing that safeguarding strategic infrastructure should remain above sectional interests.
Participants also cautioned against politicising discussions surrounding pipeline security, warning that divisive narratives could heighten tensions in the Niger Delta and distract from the broader objective of protecting critical national infrastructure.
“While recognising the legitimate concerns of host communities and the need for inclusivity, the Forum stressed that inclusion must be pursued through structured engagement, capacity-building, and clearly defined roles that do not compromise efficiency or security outcomes.
“Participants agreed that the protection of national assets must transcend sectional interests, as the consequences of pipeline breaches are borne collectively through reduced public spending, economic instability, and weakened national development.
“The Forum also cautioned against the politicisation of pipeline security debates, noting that inflammatory narratives around entitlement risk aggravating tensions in the Niger Delta and distracting from the primary objective of safeguarding national infrastructure.”
SOURCE: PUNCH NEWS PAPER
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