…As daily average output rises by 5% to 1.63mbpd
Nigeria’s crude oil and condensate production reached 554.4 million barrels in 2025, according to the latest data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The document tagged “Crude oil and condensate production 2025,” released by the NUPRC, showed that daily average crude and condensate production climbed five per cent to 1.63 million barrels per day (mb/d) from 1.55 mb/d the previous year.
However, total production decreased by 2 per cent from 566.8 million barrels in 2024.
The shift highlighted operational resilience, with reopened shut-in wells and a relatively peaceful Niger Delta offsetting challenges such as routine maintenance shutdowns and the Escravos-Lagos Pipeline explosion.
Year-on-year performance analysis showed that 2025 output averaged 46.2 million barrels per month, slightly below 2024’s 47.2 million, amid Brent crude prices that opened at $ 79/b, averaged $71/b, and closed at $63/b.
Crude oil production alone—excluding condensate—averaged 1.42 mb/d, fulfilling 95 per cent of OPEC’s 1.5 mb/d quota for Nigeria, a marked improvement in quota compliance compared with 2024’s more erratic patterns, hampered by oil theft and sabotage.
Also, December 2025 saw output at 1.54 mb/d, down from an estimated 1.66 mb/d the year prior, but the year’s higher daily average underscored sustained gains from mid-decade security enhancements
Further breakdown showed that monthly production in 2025 launched impressively at 1.73 mb/d in both January and February, sustained strength through mid-year with July peaking at 1.71 mb/d, and then gradually declined to 1.54 mb/d by December.
This smoother trajectory contrasted sharply with 2024, where April hit a low of 43.4 million barrels before rebounding to 51.7 million in December due to intensified anti-theft operations.
For Crude Oil and Condensate breakdown showed (mb/d): January: 1.73, February: 1.73, March: 1.69, April: 1.68, May: 1.65, June: 1.69, July: 1.71, August: 1.63, September: 1.58, October: 1.59, November: 1.59, December: 1.54.
On the other hand, crude oil only (mb/d): January: 1.53, February: 1.46, March: 1.40, April: 1.48, May: 1.45, June: 1.50, July: 1.50, August: 1.43, September: 1.38, October: 1.42, November: 1.43, December: 1.42.
The year’s progress stemmed from a calmer Niger Delta environment, allowing operators to reactivate long-idled wells and boost daily throughput beyond 2024 levels.
Government initiatives, including military sweeps under Operation Delta Safe, continued to curb illegal bunkering, though incidents like the Escravos explosion temporarily disrupted flows from key terminals.
Ageing infrastructure and deferred investments remained hurdles, yet the higher daily average positioned Nigeria favourably relative to its OPEC commitments and 1.7 mb/d budget benchmark.
Despite the total volume dip—possibly linked to fewer production days or conservative quotas—the elevated daily rate amid falling global prices supported N50 trillion-plus earnings projections, echoing 2024’s revenue despite volatility.
Industry analysts note that sustained stability could propel 2026 output to 1.7 mb/d, assuming no major disruptions from geopolitical tensions or further price slumps.
SOURCE: LEADERSHIP NEWS PAPER
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